Canada Federal Election 2025: Liberals Lead Early Trends with 23 of 33 Seats, Ontario and Quebec Hold Key
By Baljit Balli
Ottawa/ Chandigarh, April 28, 2025 – Early trends in Canada’s federal election indicate a strong start for the Liberal Party, securing leads in 23 of 33 reported seats from Ontario and Quebec as of 7 a.m. IST. With polling underway across the country, 28.5 million voters are casting ballots to elect a new government for 343 parliamentary seats, up from 338 in the last election. A majority of 172 seats is required to form the government, and the provinces of Ontario and Quebec, with a combined 200 seats, are poised to shape the outcome.
Electoral Landscape and Early Voting
The election follows nearly nine years of Liberal minority rule, with the party holding 152 seats in the previous Parliament, followed by the Conservatives (120), Bloc Québécois (33), NDP (24), and Green Party (2). This year’s contest features heightened voter engagement, with 7.3 million Canadians participating in advance polling—a significant jump from 5.28 million in the last election. Polls in Ontario remain open until 9:30 p.m. local time, while British Columbia’s voting concludes at 7:00 p.m. Vote counting begins immediately, with clearer trends expected within two to three hours.
South Asian and Punjabi Representation
The election showcases the growing influence of Canada’s South Asian diaspora, with 76 candidates of Indian origin contesting across the Liberal, Conservative, and NDP parties. Analysts predict that approximately 25 of these candidates could win seats, building on the 2021 election’s record of 17 Punjabi-origin MPs. Key Punjabi-Canadian figures include:
- Kamal Khera, Liberal Health Minister, defending Brampton West.
- Anita Anand, Liberal Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry, seeking re-election in Oakville.
- Jagmeet Singh, NDP leader, contesting Burnaby South.
- Sukh Dhaliwal, Liberal MP for Surrey-Newton, a prominent voice on immigration issues.
Direct contests between Punjabi candidates in ridings like Brampton West and Surrey-Newton highlight the community’s political clout, with voters in Punjab, India, closely following the campaigns of relatives and community members.
Seat Distribution Across Provinces
The 343 seats are distributed as follows:
- Ontario: 122 seats
- Quebec: 78 seats
- British Columbia: 43 seats
- Alberta: 37 seats
- Manitoba: 14 seats
- Saskatchewan: 14 seats
- New Brunswick: 10 seats
- Nova Scotia: 11 seats
- Newfoundland and Labrador: 7 seats
- Prince Edward Island: 4 seats
- Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut: 1 seat each
Ontario and Quebec, accounting for nearly 60% of the seats, are critical battlegrounds. Early trends favor the Liberals in these provinces, but the Conservatives and NDP are mounting strong challenges, particularly in urban ridings with significant South Asian populations.
Key Issues and Voter Priorities
The campaign has centered on pressing issues such as inflation, housing affordability, healthcare access, and Canada’s foreign policy, including strained relations with India following recent diplomatic tensions. The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, emphasizes economic stability and social programs, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, focus on tax cuts and cost-of-living relief. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP prioritizes social equity and labor rights, appealing to younger and working-class voters.Trump's aggressive posture towards Canada laso became one of the majot=r issue in the poll camapaign.
The South Asian community, constituting over 7% of Canada’s population, is a decisive voting bloc in ridings like Brampton, Surrey, and Calgary. Candidates are addressing diaspora concerns, including immigration pathways and cultural representation, with posts on X reflecting enthusiasm: “Punjabi candidates are making waves in Canada’s election—proud moment for our community!”
What’s Next?
As vote counting progresses, the final outcome will hinge on results from Ontario and Quebec, with British Columbia and Alberta also playing significant roles. Political analysts anticipate a tight race, with the Liberals’ early lead potentially challenged by Conservative gains in Western Canada. The increased voter turnout and diverse candidate slate signal a dynamic election that could reshape Canada’s political landscape.