Arvind Kejriwal's Political Acumen: Driving Opposition Unity in India-What Next After Passing Od Delhi Services Bill

I.N.D.I.A.: The National Opposition Alliance and its Implications for the AAP-Congress Understanding, post the passage of the Delhi Services Bill in Rajya Sabha.

 
Moments after Rajya Sabha passed the Bill (131-102) Arvind Kejriwal was LIVE! at 10:15 PM IST on 7th August, 2023.
 

Rajya Sabha Passes the Delhi Services Bill
The passage of the Delhi Services Bill through the Rajya Sabha was never in doubt after the Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha—states where they oppose the BJP—threw their weight behind it. Now that ‘the hurlyburly's done, and the battle's lost and won"¹, let us withdraw from the theatre of action and attempt to analyse who has been the biggest gainer as a result of these developments.

The Rajya Sabha passed the Bill after 10:00 PM on 7th August, 2023 with a comfortable 131-102 margin but the AAP National Convenor, Mr Arvind Kejriwal, didn’t wait for the celebrations in the Treasury Benches to die down. He was live on social media, labelling the passage of this Bill as a bloat on the Indian democracy. While he did thank all the opposition leaders and parties who stood by him and voted against the Bill, it was clear that he addressing his core constituency, the people of Delhi.

He projected the contentious Bill as just another attempt by the ruling dispensation to admit impediments in the development works being being undertaken by him in Delhi. This Bill was meant to disempower the people of Delhi, not just him and his Government, he stated. The BJP could not compete with him in performance, and hence they were trying their level best to put obstacles in his way. The Delhi voters would give the BJP a befitting reply in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he asserted.

On 3rd August, 2023, after Lok Sabha passed the Bill.
Crucial Juncture for Kejriwal
For Mr Arvind Kejriwal, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Supremo, this was arguably the most crucial battle of his life, as the Bill sought to constrain his autonomy as the Chief Minister of the Government of National Capital Territory (GNCT) of Delhi. After the victory in the Supreme Court, which proved to be transient because the Central Government moved quickly to promulgate the contentious Ordinance effectively undoing the Apex Court verdict, Mr Kejriwal refused to play the usual victim card. Instead, he made this an issue about the power and autonomy of the States and the federal structure of the Indian Constitution. Moving swiftly, and travelling across the country, he managed to convince several senior opposition leaders, many of them serving Chief Ministers. He asserted that this could mark the beginning of the end of their own autonomy, as the Governor, sitting in the Raj Bhawan, would encroach upon their decision-making space.

Bonhomie at Bengaluru: 17-18 July, 2023
Unexpected Seeds of Opposition Unity

However, it was quite unexpected that this would become the seed crystal or the nucleus of the opposition unity against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), against the backdrop of the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Starting with the initial AAP-Congress hiccups on the eve of the Patna Conclave in June, Mr Kejriwal managed to forge an understanding with the Congress Party, leading to the birth of I.N.D.I.A.² on 18th July, 2023 at Bengaluru, clearly demarcating the battle lines before the next general elections³. It is remarkable that Mr Kejriwal, with just one Lok Sabha MP, from the recently held Jalandhar by-election in Punjab, was able to galvanise and catalyse the opposition parties, starting with an issue that didn't directly impact them. It speaks volumes for his political acumen and negotiation skills.

It's worth noting that those who have interacted with the Congress Party will confirm their agonisingly slow decision-making process. How all this will play out only time will tell, but Mr Kejriwal also managed to persuade the Congress high command to this understanding, despite a stout resistance from the Punjab Pradesh Congress unit, a state where the AAP Government is securely entrenched, with Sardar Bhagwant Mann at the helm.

Unveiling the AAP-Congress Understanding
While the exact contours of the AAP-Congress understanding are not public knowledge, the widely held belief in Punjab and Chandigarh is that the Congress Party will concede six, if not all seven Lok Sabha seats to AAP in Delhi. The underlying argument is that the Congress only siphoned off AAP votes in 2019, allowing the BJP to make a clean sweep of all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi.

As for Punjab, which has 13 seats, the split could range anywhere between 7–6, 6–7, 8–5, or 5–8. Punjab Congress leaders are anxious to clarify that this alliance is not a marriage but an engagement. The understanding extends only up to the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign, and much will depend on the outcome of the general elections.

Challenges on the Ground in Punjab
However, the Punjab Congress leaders, including the suave and articulate Leader of the Opposition, Mr Partap Singh Bajwa, the usually vocal and vociferous Sukhpal Singh Khaira, and the Punjab Pradesh Congress President, the young and dynamic Raja Warring, will find it exceedingly difficult to justify to the people of Punjab how and why Congress, being the only major and credible opposition party in the state, has suddenly allied with AAP, the ruling party in Punjab. While the imperatives of national politics and priorities are points that these leaders will, no doubt, put forth, the local voters may struggle to appreciate it fully.

Implications of the New Alliance

Assuming that the Congress and AAP fight together as an alliance in the Lok Sabha in Punjab, it should not be taken for granted that the total vote bank of these two parties will cast their vote in favour of their common candidate. In the constituencies where AAP has been given the ticket by the alliance, the ignored Congress leaders may work against the interests of the chosen joint candidate. The Congress vote bank, modest as it is, may then be partly transferred to the candidate of the BJP, rather than fall wholly into the lap of AAP. The converse would equally apply, and the entire AAP vote-share may not necessarily be transferred to the common Congress Party candidate, potentially dividing and benefiting the BJP nominee. However, the threat of rebel AAP candidates would be minimal, given the party's strong disciplinary credentials.

In the overall scenario, the charisma of Mr Narendra Modi, as the undisputed leader of the NDA, should not be underestimated. His appeal, particularly to the Hindu voter, will undoubtedly be a robust factor in Punjab and across the country.

The Bengaluru Conclave: Birth of I.N.D.I.A.
The Rising Force of Kejriwal

Throughout this process, the clear winner among the opposition parties thus far is Mr Arvind Kejriwal. He is seen as a young Abhimanyu, trying to pierce through the chakravyuh of the NDA, and forge a united opposition front to deny Narendra Modi's third successive victory in 2024. It reflects significant political and moral courage to take on the full might of the BJP juggernaut as well as the Central Government, especially when two of his most trusted ministers continue to be incarcerated in CBI – ED cases.

In the event of an unexpected victory by the opposition alliance, I.N.D.I.A., Mr Arvind Kejriwal's ascent to the status of Opposition King may be constrained by his likely limited number of Lok Sabha MPs. However, the undeniable significance of his role as a pivotal king-maker and adept backroom negotiator will continue to resonate. This dynamic gains further relevance in light of Rahul Gandhi's ongoing legal battle to achieve full acquittal in a criminal defamation case, where he faces a stringent two-year sentence. Despite a Supreme Court stay on his conviction - enabling him to continue his role as a Lok Sabha MP - the future is uncertain, as his appeal still awaits a decision from the Sessions Court in Gujarat. This uncertainty, combined with the Congress Party's potential struggle to gather sufficient numbers to compete for the top position, leaves the door open for Kejriwal to exert considerable influence. In such a scenario, his strategic and political acumen will take centre stage in India's political theatre, creating a more defined role for him in shaping the country's future⁴.

Summing up

The cards dealt to Mr Arvind Kejriwal from the political deck were not particularly favourable, but the way he has played the game is a testament to his political acumen and insight. He is undoubtedly a man to watch out for at the national level--age on his side. As the poet philosopher Shakespeare said: "Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon 'em." It's not hard to see which category Mr Kejriwal falls into.

However, as regards the opposition unity after the passage of the Bill, only time will tell whether Mr Amit Shah’s prophecy about its imminent collapse will prove to be true or not.