Western Himalaya Warming Faster Than East, Set to Lose Most Snow in Coming Years: Study

A new study combining 120 years of observed temperature records (1901–2020) with eight global climate models has found that the western Himalaya — comprising Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh — is warming faster than the central and eastern stretches of the range in every season and under every emissions scenario tested.

Winter is warming faster than spring, while night-time temperatures are rising faster than daytime highs. The study also projects that springtime snow loss over the western Himalaya could be three times greater under a high-emissions pathway than under a low-emissions pathway by the end of the century.

The research, published in the Journal of Earth System Science, was led by the Department of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics at Birla Institute of Technology (BIT), Mesra, Ranchi, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and Ashoka University.

The study assessed how temperature and snow cover are changing across three sectors of the Indian Himalayan range and how far those changes could go by 2100.

The team used two types of evidence. The first was a 120-year record of actual temperature measurements across the region, covering 1901 to 2020. The second was a set of eight global climate models, which were first evaluated against observed changes and then used to project conditions up to 2100 under five possible futures — ranging from a scenario involving sharp emissions cuts to one in which fossil-fuel use remains high.

The researchers examined two seasons: winter, when snow accumulates, and the pre-monsoon spring months, when it melts. The Himalayan range was divided into three sectors: the western Himalaya (Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh), the central Himalaya (largely Uttarakhand), and the eastern Himalaya (Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and the wider North-East).

Together, these regions contain more than 15,000 glaciers and feed the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river systems, on which roughly 1.5 billion people depend.

Warming Has Already Reached About 1°C, but Is Not Evenly Spread

Compared with the first three decades of the 1900s, all three sectors of the range had already warmed by close to 1°C in winter by the two decades to 2014: 1.06°C in the western Himalaya, 0.96°C in the central Himalaya and 1.09°C in the east.

Spring temperatures had risen by 1.08°C in the west, 0.83°C in the centre and 0.83°C in the east.

The warming has not occurred at a steady pace. Warmer-than-normal years have become the rule rather than the exception across all three sectors over the past 20–30 years, with most of the change occurring in recent decades, the study said.

“The Himalaya is often discussed as a single system, but our observations and models both say otherwise. The western Himalaya consistently emerges as the most sensitive stretch — it warms the most and loses the most snow under every pathway we tested. That has direct consequences for the states that sit in it,” said Protyusha Mukhopadhyay, lead author from Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra.

Western Himalayan Winters May Warm by More Than 7°C Under High Emissions

The models show the same west-to-east pattern throughout the century. If emissions remain high, winters during 2081–2100 could be 7.18°C warmer in the western Himalaya, 6.71°C warmer in the central Himalaya and 5.82°C warmer in the east, compared with the early 1900s.

Spring temperatures are projected to rise in the same order: 6.91°C in the west, 6.41°C in the centre and 5.16°C in the east.

“In the west and centre, winters are warming faster than springs. Less snow on the ground would mean a darker surface, which absorbs more heat, leading to further snowmelt. It matters because winter is the season in which snow is supposed to build up; warmer winters mean less snow banked for the melt months that follow,” said Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, corresponding author from Ashoka University.

Nights Are Warming Faster Than Days

One of the clearest signals in the observational record is that minimum, or night-time, temperatures are rising faster than maximum, or daytime, temperatures across the western and central Himalaya.

In the western Himalaya, winter minimum temperatures rose by 1.23°C, compared with 0.87°C for daytime temperatures. In spring, the corresponding increases were 1.25°C and 0.91°C.

In the central Himalaya, the gap was wider in winter, with minimum temperatures rising by 1.20°C compared with 0.72°C for maximum temperatures.

The eastern Himalaya was the exception, where winter maximum temperatures rose by 1.19°C, compared with a 0.99°C increase in minimum temperatures.

Warmer nights matter because they reduce the hours during which snow and ice can refreeze. This can accelerate melting and alter when meltwater reaches rivers downstream.

“Rising night-time temperatures are the quieter half of this story, and arguably the more consequential one. When the cold nights that let snowpack recover start disappearing, you change the melt cycle itself rather than just how much snow falls and when the water arrives downstream,” said Dr Swagata Payra, co-author from BIT Mesra.

Spring Emerges as the Season of Greatest Snow Loss

Across all three sectors, more snow is lost in spring than in winter, with the western Himalaya experiencing by far the greatest decline.

The study measures snow loss in terms of the weight of snow covering each square metre of ground. In the western Himalaya, spring snow is projected to decline steadily even under the lowest-emissions pathway: by 24.2 kg per square metre by 2040, 27.4 kg by 2060 and 32 kg by the end of the century.

Under the highest-emissions pathway, the end-of-century loss could reach 95.9 kg per square metre, pointing towards an almost complete loss of seasonal snow in some pockets of the region, the authors said.

The central Himalaya is projected to lose less snow, although the decline remains substantial, ranging from 17.0 to 34.9 kg per square metre by the end of the century, depending on the emissions pathway.

The eastern Himalaya is projected to experience the least snow loss, ranging from 5.5 to 11.1 kg per square metre.

Winter follows a similar pattern. Western Himalayan snow loss by the end of the century is projected to range from 9.5 kg per square metre under the lowest-emissions pathway to 53.2 kg under the highest-emissions pathway.

Emissions Could Make a Difference of Several Degrees

Western Himalayan winters are projected to be 2.55°C warmer by the end of the century if emissions are sharply reduced, compared with 7.18°C warmer if emissions remain high — a difference of 4.6°C.

For spring snow, the high-emissions pathway results in roughly three times the loss projected under the low-emissions pathway. For winter snow, the projected loss is more than five times greater.

The eight models largely agree on the projected changes over the next two to three decades. However, their projections diverge considerably towards 2100 because the extent of warming will depend heavily on future emissions.

The eastern Himalaya is projected to warm the least of the three sectors and lose the least snow, with its outlook varying less across emissions pathways.

However, the study notes that the eastern Himalaya has emerged as a hotspot for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) — sudden and destructive floods that occur when a lake held back by glacial debris or other natural barriers breaches.

“That risk is expected to spread westward in the future, driven by retreating glaciers and the new lakes they leave behind, not by temperature alone,” said Protyusha Mukhopadhyay.

“The models agree on where we are headed over the next two to three decades. What remains open is the second half of the century, and that is determined by emissions rather than by anything intrinsic to the mountains. A low-emissions pathway does not stop the warming, but it changes its magnitude by several degrees,” she added.

Researchers Call for Region-Specific Climate Action

The authors have called for region-specific climate services and adaptation policies, enhanced monitoring combining in-situ networks, satellite products and sustained high-resolution modelling to track glacier and snow dynamics in near real time, strengthened early-warning systems, sustainable water management, community-level resilience programmes and greater transboundary cooperation.

The researchers said the movement of water through the high mountains remains poorly captured by existing models. More ground-based measurements are needed to determine with greater confidence how much ice and snow melts each year and how much of that meltwater eventually reaches the rivers below.

About the Research

Research led by: Protyusha Mukhopadhyay, Department of Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi

Co-authors: T P Sabin, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune; Swagata Payra and Akhouri Pramod Krishna, BIT Mesra; Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Department of Environmental Studies, Ashoka University, Sonepat

Published in: Journal of Earth System Science, 2026, 135:138; online June 9, 2026

Title: “Vulnerability of the Himalayan region under the climate change”

Data sources: CRU TS v4.07 gridded observations (1901–2020); eight-model CMIP6 ensemble (historical 1901–2014; projections 2015–2100) under five SSP scenarios.

All changes are relative to the 1901–1930 climatological baseline.

DOI: 10.1007/s12040-026-02846-9

August 18, 2026