By 2030, India to see 43 % surge in extreme rainfall intensity, 2.5 fold rise in heatwave days: IPE Global-Esri India Study
Babushahi Bureau
New Delhi, June 10, 2025 — A groundbreaking new study released today by IPE Global and Esri India forecasts a dramatic 43% increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events across India by 2030, alongside a 2.5-fold rise in the number of heatwave days.
The findings signal a future where India is set to become significantly hotter and wetter, placing immense stress on urban infrastructure, agriculture, and human health.
Launched at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, the study titled “Weathering the Storm” paints a stark picture of India's climate trajectory. The analysis reveals that by 2030, major cities including Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna, and Bhubaneswar could witness a two-fold rise in heatwave days—often accompanied by erratic and intense rainfall.
"Climate change is exposing India to increasingly frequent and severe heat and rainfall extremes. Without hyper-local risk assessments and immediate action, the situation will grow harsher, particularly in urban centers," said Abinash Mohanty, lead author and Head of Climate Change and Sustainability at IPE Global.
According to the report:
- India has seen a 15-fold increase in extreme heat days between 1993 and 2024 during key seasonal periods (MAM and JJAS).
- The last decade alone saw a 19-fold spike in these events.
- 8 out of 10 Indian districts will face multiple instances of extreme rainfall by 2030.
- 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities will be exposed to concurrent heat stress and rainfall extremes.
The study identifies Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur as especially vulnerable, with over 80% of their districts affected.
Coastal regions are increasingly at risk, with nearly 70% of coastal districts likely to endure prolonged heat stress by 2030—rising to nearly 80% by 2040.
Ashwajit Singh, Founder and MD of IPE Global, emphasized the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies:
“India must transition from reactive to proactive risk management. Climate resilience must become central to our development paradigm.”
The study also links local environmental degradation—such as deforestation, mangrove encroachment, and land-use changes—with rising climate vulnerabilities. It proposes establishing a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to monitor hyper-local climate patterns using Earth Observation data and predictive models. Agendra Kumar, MD of Esri India, highlighted the role of GIS technology in climate planning:
“GIS offers a powerful platform to integrate climate data and guide planning for resilient infrastructure, disaster response, and policy decisions.”
Other recommendations include:
- Creation of district-level heat-risk champions.
- Development of risk financing instruments.
- Integration of spatial intelligence for policy design and implementation.
By providing a district-level microclimatic assessment, the study breaks new ground in linking extreme heat and rainfall patterns to land use, population centers, and local climate drivers.
It underlines that India's climate resilience will hinge not on broad global models alone but on hyper-local insights and adaptive strategies.