Punjab Polls: Experiment in Democracy's Laboratory.......Pushpinder Singh Gill

February 11, 2022: Elections to the Punjab Assembly in 2022 are different from the previous editions on several accounts. For decades the fight has been between the two established parties i.e. Indian National Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal along with its coalition partner Bhartiya Janta Party. 

Previous elections used to rotate governments between the two factions but this monotony was broken in the year 2012 when Akali Dal and BJP managed to beat the anti-incumbency by repeating the government. 

It was the year 2014 when during the parliamentary elections a new entrant disrupted the election scenario, bagged four seats on its debut. This made the political undercurrent in the state more vibrant and the traditional political parties wary of their apple cart being toppled in the next assembly elections. In 2017 the fight for the assembly elections was a pitched battle in a three-way fight and the surveys pointed to an imminent upset at the hustings. 

A few mistakes and incidents quickly changed the scenario dramatically and the so-called urban educated class voters hesitated to usher in the change, falling back on the tested old political class and voting Congress party back to power with a thumping majority. Five years, unkept promises, a coup, and a yearlong agitation later has spread the yearning for change across the state once again.

Another variable contributing to the changed circumstances is the third wave of corona in January that threatened to derail the entire election process. Positivity rates and infections were peaking and the number of positive cases in Punjab exceeded even the previous waves. 

The election commission issued guidelines banning political rallies and roadshows and it seemed the entire campaign would be limited to digital media, door-to-door campaigns, and virtual rallies. 

As the days progressed and the infections dropped, the guidelines were revised from time to time and certain relaxations were given to the political parties. The ban on rallies was lifted and an outdoor gathering of 1000 people and an indoor rally of 500 people were allowed. 

Similar relaxations were given in the door-to-door campaigns and some semblance of normalcy was restored in the electoral campaign. With fifteen days to go the campaign has returned to some of its old traditional style of gatherings. 

Meanwhile, mass campaign promotions by the candidates through social media have become an effective medium for voter outreach in the face of COVID precautionary restrictions due to its huge audience and followers. Parties are hugely focussing on perception building around the voters and technology-backed voter to voter connect via digital media.

Coming back to the political process, this time the contest is not limited to three parties as several equations have changed compared to that of 2017. The farm bills and the agitation has ensured a groundswell of opposition to the BJP. 

This prompted Akali Dal to break up from the coalition partner of more than twenty years and stitch a new alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. Congress party, in order to shed its anti-incumbency and deflect the anger to its unkept promises, sacked its chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh to bring in a new face. 

All calculations of ‘Dalit’ vote share of 33% and to counter the pitch of AAP, Charanjit Singh Channi was chosen out of the number of options and claimant’s to be appointed as the next chief minister of Punjab. This led to the ouster of Amarinder Singh from Congress and the formation of a new political front by the name of Punjab Lok Congress. 

Similarly, Akali Dal had also suffered some rebellion in its ranks and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa had also made his own outfit by the name of Akali dal(Sanjukat). BJP stitched its alliance with both these factions of Congress and Akali breakaway groups and announced to fight all 117 seats of the Punjab assembly. 

Not to be left behind were some of the Kissan Union leaders who also launched a front in the name of Sanjukat Samaj Morcha and jumped into the electoral fray under the leadership of Balbir Singh Rajewal. Thus, from a bipolar contest of traditional times, Punjab has reached a multi-polar contest with five major players and a number of independents & rebels thrown into the mix as well.

The electoral arena not only has a multi-party political wrestling bout but it is also witnessing a change in voting pattern over a period of time. Ten to fifteen years ago joint families used to vote together for a candidate as instructed by the head of the family but improved literacy and the concept of nuclear families have led to a pattern whereby all the members of a family have different voting choices. 

Political parties have reacted to this changed pattern by targeting each segment individually and differently. Women as a separate and important segment have emerged not only in Punjab but in many other states of the country. Prohibition in Bihar is a case in point to the extent parties can go to facilitate their voting by wooing women's power. 

Punjab is witnessing announcements of cash dole-outs to free transportation and even free gas cylinders to influence women's vote. Similarly, free IELTS classes to easy loans with no interest and collateral or guarantee are offered to lure the youth.

Another aspect of elections that is pursued openly this time is targeting the voters on religious and caste lines. Punjab has been known for not voting on any religious or caste patterns as may be the case in many other states but this time political parties are trying to divide and polarize them on caste and religious lines. 

It all started with Akali Dal tying up with BSP and announcing a scheduled caste person as deputy chief minister. Other parties joined the bandwagon and Congress even went one step ahead and replaced Amarinder Singh with a schedule caste MLA in the form of Charanjeet Singh Channi and projected him to be the candidate for the post in the next elections also. 

This calculation also brought to life Hindu versus Sikh candidates’ right to lead this state. A new bitterness and open targeting of voters on religious lines are witnessed in Punjab for the first time. Even during the dark times of terrorism, no such fault lines had appeared in the two communities of the state.

Many parties and candidates in the fray, highly charged electorate fed up with broken promises, lack of basic facilities, and unemployment are the ingredients of a surprise recipe of unpredictable results. This also could be a case where all calculations of political parties go haywire and the frustrated ‘Janata’ decides to overhaul the political system.

 The possibility of this scenario is more plausible now because of the heightened awareness and confidence of the people of the state with their participation in the year-long struggle and success in the ‘Andolan’.

Embracing the change this society has been yearning for may become an option for them in this election. If this fructifies it may lead to a change in how the elections are fought in the rest of the country as well. 

As Punjab is known for its keenness to experiment and usher in change, people are watching keenly the results of this election and its pan-India implications in the long run. 

It reminds me of the popular statement of Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Of US, Louis Brandeis in which he said "A state may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory; and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country."